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Analysis of all 24 of Doug Pederson’s 4th down ‘go for it’ calls in 2018

Analysis of all 24 of Doug Pederson's 4th down 'go for it' calls in 2018

In 2016, the Philadelphia Eagles went for it on fourth down 27 occasions, greater than another group in the NFL. Once they did not convert, Doug Pederson was completely hammered with harsh criticism for his selections. 

In the course of the 2017 season, Pederson did not let that criticism hassle him in the slightest as he went for it on fourth down 29 occasions (should you embrace the playoffs), as soon as once more greater than another staff in the NFL. PhillyVoice decided final February that the Eagles gained 74 factors consequently of Pederson going for it on fourth down, and it solely value them three factors once they went for it and did not get it. Partly consequently of Pederson’s aggressiveness, the Eagles went 13-Three through the common season, after which gained the Tremendous Bowl.

We’re all on board with Pederson’s aggressive strategy by now, proper? I imply… proper? Anyway, in 2018, Pederson went for it on fourth down 24 occasions, which didn’t lead the league for the primary time in his Eagles tenure. As an alternative, the Eagles have been tied for third in fourth down makes an attempt, behind solely the Denver Broncos and Dallas Cowboys. Let’s go forward and take a look at how Pederson’s fourth down decision-making went this yr.

1) Eagles vs. Buccaneers, 4th and 1 from the Buccaneers’ 17: Nick Foles up the center for 2 yards

As an alternative of taking the straightforward three factors on a 35-yard area objective try, Pederson ran a QB sneak, picked up the primary down, and the Eagles would rating a TD two performs later.

Factors added tally: four

Factors misplaced tally: Zero

2) Eagles vs. Buccaneers, 4th and four from the Buccaneers’ 49: Foles move to Zach Ertz for Three yards, turnover on downs

There was 12:45 left in the third quarter of the sport when Pederson opted to go for it right here, with the Eagles down 20-7. Foles accomplished a cross to Ertz on a jerk route, and the primary down was there available by Ertz, however he was tackled brief of the sticks. Beginning with good subject place, the Buccaneers scored a TD on their ensuing drive with good area place.

Factors added tally: four

Factors misplaced tally: 7

Three) Eagles vs. Buccaneers, 4th and 1 from the Buccaneers’ 6: Foles up the center for 2 yards

Dealing with a 20-point deficit late in the third quarter, this name was a no brainer. The Eagles scored a TD two performs later.

Factors added tally: Eight

Factors misplaced tally: 7

four) Eagles vs. Buccaneers, 4th and 10 from the Buccaneers’ 35: Foles incomplete move to Corey Clement, turnover on downs

Down 13 with slightly below 9 minutes left in the 4th quarter, Pederson opted to go for it, needing two touchdowns to take the lead, however the try failed. Definitely, he might have tried a 53-yard subject objective, which is not any positive factor both. 

Word: For any FG try over 50 yards that didn’t occur consequently of going for it, we cannot add that to the “points lost tally.” For any area aim try beneath 50, we’ll.

The Bucs went three-and-out on their ensuing possession.

Factors added tally: Eight

Factors misplaced tally: 7

5) Eagles vs. Buccaneers, 4th and Objective from the Buccaneers’ 2: Foles move full to Nelson Agholor, landing

Down 13, the Eagles’ minimize their deficit to six. No-brainer choice.

Factors added tally: 12

Factors misplaced tally: 7

6) Eagles vs. Vikings, 4th and 1 from the Vikings’ 20: Carson Wentz cross to Alshon Jeffery for 6 yards

With 12:49 left in the third quarter down 14, Pederson went for it as an alternative of taking the straightforward three. Two performs later, the Eagles scored a TD, after which Pederson placed on his huge boy analytics pants, went for two, and obtained it.

Factors added tally: 17

Factors misplaced tally: 7

7) Eagles vs. Panthers, 4th and 1 from the Panthers’ 45: Wentz up the center for 1 yard

Wentz is ideal on QB sneaks over his three yr profession to date, making this a no brainer name in plus-50 territory. Rather a lot of different coaches would punt.

There will probably be a second fourth down name later in this drive.

Factors added tally: 17

Factors misplaced tally: 7

Eight) Eagles vs. Panthers, 4th and 5 from the Panthers’ 39: Wentz to Jeffery for 14 yards

I really like the aggressiveness right here. Whereas a 4th and 5 is more durable than a 4th and 1 (#evaluation), it’s idiotic to punt out of your opponent’s 39 in the primary quarter, and a 57-yard area aim is not precisely a excessive proportion play both.

The Eagles’ drive would ultimately stall, and Jake Elliott would miss a 36-yard area objective try.

Factors added tally: 17

Factors misplaced tally: 7

9) Eagles vs. Panthers, 4th and 1 from the Panthers’ Three: Wentz up the center for 1 yard

With a 10-Zero lead, Pederson appeared to step on the Panthers’ throats, so he went for it right here, acquired it, and the Eagles scored a TD two performs later, going up 17-Zero. Clearly, that lead didn’t maintain up.

Factors added tally: 21

Factors misplaced tally: 7

10) Eagles vs. Panthers, 4th and a couple of from the Panthers’ 14: Wentz sacked, fumble recovered by Panthers

This was the Eagles’ ultimate drive. This play occurred with Zero:31 left in regulation and the Eagles down four. Extraordinarily apparent go for it state of affairs. They did not get it, the Panthers had one kneeldown, and that was the sport.

Factors added tally: 21

Factors misplaced tally: 7

11) Eagles vs. Cowboys, 4th and 1 from the Cowboys’ 20: Josh Adams up the center for -Three, turnover on downs

This name occurred early in the second quarter with the Eagles down Three-Zero. Whereas the choice to go for it was positive, the pay name was not. On the 2018 season, in seven carries on third or 4th down and 1 or 2, Adams had -Eight yards, and no first downs.

To notice, we’ll add three factors to Eagles’ “points lost tally” for lacking out on a possible made subject aim had they kicked it right here, however we cannot add three for the Cowboys’ subject objective on their ensuing drive, since they might have began from round their very own 25 on an Eagles’ made subject aim anyway.

Factors added tally: 21

Factors misplaced tally: 10

12) Eagles vs. Cowboys, 4th and seven from the Cowboys’ 35: Wentz to Ertz for 6, turnover on downs

Down by seven with 1:17 to play, the Birds fell one yard shy of holding their drive alive, however this was an apparent go for it state of affairs.

Factors added tally: 21

Factors misplaced tally: 10

13) Eagles vs. Saints, 4th and 5 from the Eagles’ 41: Wentz incomplete to Ertz, turnover on downs

They have been down 31-7 in the third quarter, and could not cease the Saints’ offense anyway, so what the hell?

On a brief subject, the Saints scored a TD on their ensuing possession to go up 38-7.

Factors added tally: 21

Factors misplaced tally: 17

14) Eagles vs. Saints, 4th and 1 from the Eagles’ 34: Wentz incomplete to Jeffery, turnover on downs

This time, the Eagles have been down 45-7, so once more, what the hell?

On a brief area, the Saints mercifully kicked a subject aim.

Factors added tally: 21

Factors misplaced tally: 20

15) Eagles vs. Giants, 4th and 1 from the Giants’ 42: Wentz to Agholor for 12 yards

This was an enormous name and conversion with the rating tied at 22 and solely 2:39 left in regulation. The Eagles picked up the primary down, bled clock from there, and kicked a game-winning 43-yard area aim with 22 seconds left.

Factors added tally: 24

Factors misplaced tally: 20

16) Eagles vs. Redskins, 4th and Objective from the 1: Adams up the center for -2, turnover on downs

Barring some strategic instances based mostly on the rating and the quantity of time remaining, in the event you’re not going for a TD on 4th and Objective from the 1, you should not be making these sorts of determination as a head coach. Even when you aren’t getting it, there’s a terrific probability you are going to maintain a backed-up workforce anyway, getting the ball again with good area place, so simply go for it.

On this case, Pederson was proper to go for it, however once more, a referred to as run with Adams is only a dangerous play name. Because it turned out, the Redskins shortly went Three-and-out, and the Eagles scored a TD on their subsequent possession. I am tempted to the give the Eagles a +7 right here in the “points added tally,” however will not.

Factors added tally: 24

Factors misplaced tally: 20

17) Eagles vs. Cowboys, 4th and three from the Cowboys’ 48: Wentz to Darren Sproles for 25 yards

Ballsy. The Eagles have been down by three late in the third quarter, they usually picked up an enormous conversion right here. This drive ended with an Eagles area aim. Had the Eagles not picked up this primary down, Pederson would have been lit up by indignant sports activities speak radio callers all week. I imply, extra so than typical after a loss to the Cowboys.

Factors added tally: 27

Factors misplaced tally: 20

18) Eagles vs. Rams, 4th and 1 from the Rams’ 49: Adams up the center for no achieve, turnover on downs

Significantly? Once more, the choice to go for it right here was fantastic down 1 in the second quarter, however how might Adams nonetheless be getting carries in these big spots?

On a brief subject, the Rams kicked a area aim.

Factors added tally: 27

Factors misplaced tally: 23

19) Eagles vs. Texans, 4th and a couple of from the Texans’ 37 yard line: Foles to Sproles for 37 yards and a TD

Bang. We’ll give Doug the complete seven factors on the “points added tally” since this may have in any other case ben a 55-yard subject objective try.

Factors added tally: 34

Factors misplaced tally: 23

20) Eagles vs. Texans, 4th and three from the Texans’ Eight: Foles to Dallas Goedert for 6 yards

Down by two factors in the second quarter, I might guess that nearly each different head coach in the NFL can be completely satisfied taking the lead with a subject aim. Not Doug. He went for it, picked up the primary down down, and eight performs later (sure, that’s certainly right) the Eagles scored a TD.

21) Eagles vs. Texans, 4th and Aim from the Texans’ 1: Foles to Ertz for a 1-yard TD

This play capped off the drive after the 4th and three conversion above. A two-point conversion try failed, so we’ll solely add 6 factors right here.

Factors added tally: 40

Factors misplaced tally: 23

22) Eagles vs. Texans, 4th and 1 from the Eagles’ 43: Foles up the center for 1

Ballsy name by yourself aspect of the sector. Pederson picked up the primary down, however Foles was picked off on the subsequent play.

Factors added tally: 40

Factors misplaced tally: 23

23) Eagles vs. Redskins, 4th and 1 from the Redskins’ 15: Foles up the center for 2 yards

The Eagles would rating a TD three performs later.

Factors added tally: 47

Factors misplaced tally: 23

24) Eagles vs. Bears, 4th and Objective from the Bears’ 2: Foles to Golden Tate for a TD

The Eagles wanted a TD down 5 with Zero:56 to go, so this was a simple choice, and the Birds took the late lead.

Factors added tally: 54

Factors misplaced tally: 23

Conclusion

Whereas the Eagles couldn’t replicate the almost unimaginable feat of including 74 factors vs. Three factors misplaced on fourth down “go for it” selections in 2017, they proved as soon as once more in 2018 that good issues occur extra typically than dangerous issues once you’re aggressive on fourth down. Additionally, it’s, you already know, enjoyable!

It boggles my thoughts how some groups across the league aren’t catching as much as Pederson and the Eagles’ analytics staff on fourth down decision-making.


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